Smelter Production Increase Desire Strong Can Zinc Ore Imports Be Sustained in March? [SMM Analysis]

SMM March 20 Update: According to the latest customs data, in February 2025, 461,400 mt of zinc concentrates were imported, up 16.28% MoM (64,600 mt) and up 83.73% YoY. The cumulative imports for January-February 2025 reached 858,300 mt, up 32.64% YoY. By country, the top three sources of imports in February 2025 were: Peru with 106,400 mt, accounting for 23.05%; Australia with 97,400 mt, accounting for 21.11%; and Mexico with 31,400 mt, accounting for 6.8%. On a MoM basis, significant increases were seen from Peru, Mexico, and South Africa, while imports from Australia, Mongolia, and Chile decreased to varying degrees. SMM believes that the noticeable growth in zinc concentrate imports during January-February is due to the following reasons: 1. Seasonal factors led to increased demand for imported ore by smelters, coupled with production ramp-up at the beginning of the year, driving continuous inflows of imported zinc ore. 2. In Q1, there were few disruptions to overseas zinc mines, and under normal production and transportation conditions, domestic zinc ore imports grew YoY. Entering March, although smelters prefer domestic ore due to price advantages, previously ordered imported zinc ore continues to arrive. With processing fees rebounding, smelters have a strong intention to increase production, leading to an expected increase in ore demand. However, as domestic mines have not fully recovered, the pullback in March's imported zinc ore volume may be limited. 》Click to view SMM Metal Industry Chain Database